WATFORD are nine victories away from promotion. While, at this juncture, they may appear to need more to be mathematically safe, the probability is that nine would be sufficient.

That would give the Hornets, who have 10 home games to play, 88 points.

While such a tally is easily within the reach of Bristol City, the third-placed clubs would need 44 points to equal that total and 45 to make sure it does not hinge on goals scored.

So, if Watford were to win nine of their remaining 18 games, Fulham would have to make sure that they avoid suffering more than four defeats. That means 14 victories and four defeats could earn Fulham an automatic place if Watford only win nine of their last 18.

To be mathematically uncatchable from this vantage point, Watford need to win 14 of the 18, giving them 103 points.

At the moment, if they won all their games, Fulham's ceiling is 98; Grimsby's is 101.

Graham Taylor will not enter into such speculation.

"It is every very easy to have egg all over your face in this game," he points out. "If I say after 15 games you don't get promotion, then I have to say you don't get it after 28.

"After a defeat we have won two on the trot, which returns us to the top. Being top is something I have never worried about, pressure-wise. But it can easily change. I don't trust the game. If anyone becomes complacent or think they have cracked it, that is when things start to go wrong.

"Do we need nine or ten or only six victories? We can speculate. But we may keep on winning, Bristol City keep on winning and Fulham and Grimsby come out of that pack. We have to budget for an exceptional year to win the championship," he warns.

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