Hertsmere's coronavirus case figures may be 'skewed'

There have been 96 new cases identified in Hertsmere in the seven days to October 3, according to the government's coronavirus dashboard.

These 96 cases equate to a rate of 91.5 - the second highest in the south of England, only behind Redbridge in east London.

And a government map shows the majority of 89 cases in Hertsmere between September 26 and October 2 were of people living in Radlett (17) Borehamwood (14) Elstree & Aldenham (14), and Bushey Heath (10).

But it turns out that these people may not actually live in Hertsmere right now.

The darker the blue the more cases there are. Data for Sept 26-Oct 2

Hertsmere Borough Council leader Morris Bright has told us it is his understanding that university students testing positive elsewhere in the country have registered their home address in Hertsmere when they should have registered their university address.

A hypothetical example would be a student at a university in Manchester has tested positive for Covid-19.

Because they are currently living in Manchester, the address they should have registered when they took their test should have been their university address - but instead they registered their home address in Hertsmere.

This leads to a 'case' being identified in Hertsmere when actually, it is in Manchester.

Cllr Bright says his officers are making enquiries with Public Health England.

He said: "From what I am being told, it appears that the spike may have been caused by young people away at university but being identified as Hertsmere cases due to their home addresses.

"Officers at Hertsmere Borough Council have requested of Public Health England a deep dive into the figures to ascertain to what extent that has or has not skewed the latest figures."

The jump in cases in Hertsmere has come as a surprise - especially after the borough dragged itself out of a hole after a significant outbreak in late August, which the county council linked to teenage house parties in the Borehamwood area.

But while the reason behind the rise in cases in Hertsmere remains uncertain, Cllr Bright is urging residents to take the necessary precautions.

He said: "We continue to liaise closely with Hertfordshire County Council and other partners to monitor the latest data.

"We don’t want to see figures escalating and run the risk of more stringent measures being imposed in our area so I urge everyone to stay vigilant and continue to ‘play your part’ by washing your hands; keeping your distance from others; wearing a face covering and self-isolating and booking a test if you get symptoms."

This afternoon, Councillor Tim Hutchings, cabinet member for public health in Hertfordshire, also suggested university students giving home addresses has contributed to a spike in cases across Hertfordshire - and added the test and trace technical error will "show an increase" in cases.

He said: "As has been well-documented, a technical issue meant that almost 16,000 positive cases of COVID-19 recorded across England between 25 September and 2 October were initially missed by the national test and trace system.

"Of these, 158 cases have been recorded for Hertfordshire. We believe this will show an increase in our coronavirus infection rates but, at this stage, there is no cause for undue concern. The main age group affected is under-35s, although cases are across all age bands, with a large number of them being students who do not study in Hertfordshire but have provided their home address here as their main place of residence."

Credit: PA

Cllr Hutchings continued: "As part of our response, we have so far conducted thorough investigations in St Albans, Watford, East Herts and Hertsmere, and we’ll carry out similar reviews of the current situation in each of Hertfordshire’s other six districts and boroughs.

"Everyone to test positive will, in line with government guidance, be expected to self-isolate and we can offer support with that, including through Herts Help to ensure people can get food shopping, vital medication and debt advice.

"As well as this, everybody to test positive is being contacted by the national test and trace system or by our local contact tracing service – we will prioritise the most recent cases and those we believe present the biggest risk when following up contacts.

"The additional cases are a reminder that the virus is still circulating in our county, so it’s vitally important we all keep working together to stop the number of cases rising any further.

"We want to avoid tougher measures being introduced in Hertfordshire. To do that, people should continue to play their part by wearing face-coverings where expected, washing their hands regularly, observing social-distancing and keeping to the 'rule of six'.

"If you think that you may have come into contact with someone with COVID-19, you should self-isolate for 14 days. If you have some of the coronavirus symptoms, you should call 119 or book a test at www.gov.uk/coronavirus."