Chris Whitty predicts surge in Covid as lockdown is eased

Professor Chris Whitty told MPs cases could rise but it was uncertain if this would be in the summer, autumn or winter. 

He also rejected calls to ease lockdown faster saying a lot more people could die. 

Modelling data considered by the Sage scientific panel has suggested that even under the most optimistic set of assumptions, at least a further 30,000 Covid-19 deaths could occur.

It comes as this week the country began the roadmap out of lockdown with schools reopening. 

Prof Whitty told MPs the modelling reflected the fact that it was a common virus and “even if you have a relatively small proportion of people still remaining vulnerable, that still equates to a very large number of people overall”.

That might include people for whom the vaccine is not effective, those who do not take it or those in younger groups who have not yet been offered a jab.

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“What we are going to see is, as things are opening up, what all the modelling suggests is that at some point we will get a surge in virus,” he said.

“We hope it doesn’t happen soon, it might for example happen later in the summer if we open up gradually or because of the seasonal effect it might happen over the next autumn and winter.

“All the modelling suggests there is going to be a further surge and that will find the people who either have not been vaccinated or where the vaccine has not worked.

“Some of them will end up in hospital and sadly some of them will go on to die.”

Prof Whitty said the modelling was an “indication of general principles” rather than a specific prediction.

But the models demonstrated that “if you open up too fast, a lot more people die”.

He told MPs that even opening up in a “steady way” such as in the road map would result in more deaths, but fewer than in a rushed release of restrictions.

“It is really important that we do not give any impression that what we are expecting is this just goes away and there is no further deaths.

“That is not realistic and I think to pretend that to the British public would be completely wrong.”

Prof Whitty defended the approach of allowing five-week time intervals between steps of unlocking in order to assess their impact on the virus – saying leaders in all countries had eased off too quickly in the past.

He told MPs: “If you look at the history of this all around the world, the history of this is not full of countries and individual leaders wishing they had done more, faster.

“It’s full of leaders who wished they had acted quicker and then been more careful as they take things off.”