Covid cases NOT falling in Herts with severe illness rising

Herts public health chief Jim McManus stressed numbers are "plateauing" rather than falling with rates "significantly higher than they had been for some time".

The warning comes amid reports that cases may be falling nationally despite steep rises in European countries such as Germany and the Netherlands.

Mr McManus pointed to increasing rates of intensive care unit (ICU) admission in Hertfordshire as well as rises in mechanical ventilation and death rates.

He also said any suggestion "herd immunity" had been reached either generally in Herts or in schools was not supported by the data.

Hertfordshire public health chief Jim McManus.

“It is not appropriate to conclude that we have reached an overall substantial decline in cases – it could go back up again,” he added at a recent public health panel meeting.

Mr McManus said education and leisure settings were said to be the most common sources of exposure to the virus.

It was reported that cases continue to be highest amongst school children – with the highest rates amongst 12 to 16-year-olds.

Before the half-term break case rates in school-age children in some parts of Hertfordshire were said to be amongst the highest in the country.

And although rates have dropped from a high that was in excess of 1,800 before half-term, they are still said to be "very high" – with more than 900 cases per 100k and rising numbers of "outbreaks" in educational settings.

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By Friday morning (November 12) there were reported to have been 211 confirmed outbreaks at educational settings within the week – including at 114 primaries, 49 secondaries, 14 special and 10 independent schools.

And some schools are already implementing additional measures such as ventilation, enhanced testing, vaccination coverage and face coverings in certain settings

“This virus has not run its course,” stressed Mr McManus.

“Nor have we reached herd immunity in schools or anything like it –  and indeed nor have we seen an end to infection circulating.”

Mr McManus reported that vaccine uptake among 12-15-year-olds was running at around 44 per cent.

Severe illness due to Covid is rising in Hertfordshire.

“We know from previous experience that rises in infections of younger age groups can – and do – spread into older age groups,” he said.

“Our hospital admissions are increasing and we have clear evidence of transmission from infected children into the rest of the community and older adults – and vice versa.

“It is not that the schools are the source of infection, it is that infection is widespread in the community and is using every opportunity."

Nevertheless, Mr McManus said that despite recent increases, there had been a "massive reduction" in deaths compared to the rates recorded in previous peaks.