CAN we win? After the first shock of more runways at Stansted had sunk in, that is what campaigners are beginning to ask. Despite the consultation process is it perhaps a done deal?

I do not accept the conspiracy theory. After all, if the Maplin project had gone ahead, a large airport there would now be serving the needs of the south east. However, to persuade the Government that it would be a terrible mistake to despoil east Hertfordshire and north west Essex we need to pick our arguments with care.

Two things are absolutely clear from the consultation document. The Government is convinced that extra airport capacity in the south east should be provided.

Secondly, it believes London needs a hub airport where people can conveniently change planes. Personally I doubt whether it will be shifted from these two basic premises.

Many people feel strongly that the desire to travel should be subjugated to protection of the environment. They argue that pollution of the atmosphere should be curbed and aviation fuel taxed. These are undoubtedly serious matters which deserve attention. Equally they require international agreement.I am sure measures will be taken, in time.

The cost of air travel may rise, but this may not be sufficient to suppress demand.

Others simply doubt that forecasts of passenger demand are accurate making it unnecessary to plan for huge airport expansion. To them I say that study of history is more revealing than peering into the crystal ball.

Whatever doubts have been expressed in the past about numbers have proved to be wrong.

So I say we should not press too hard the arguments which the Government is most likely to reject. I do not think we will be safe until the Government is convinced that somewhere other than Stansted is the best place to deal with what it believes are our aviation needs.

August 20, 2002 10:00